4 pts actual 20 28 pts
IPL / 2021
2021
Actual championChennai Super Kings
Won the replay19.8%
Luck score80.2%
The champion appeared in roughly one of every 5 simulated title outcomes. Their actual 18 points were +2.0 versus the model expectation.
Hero comparison uses simulated mean points; the table’s Luck column uses the simulated median.01 Expected v actual
Where luck moved the table.
Luck index is actual points minus the simulated median. Positive is above expectation; negative is below.
| Actual | Team | Pts | Expected | Median | Luck | Expected pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Delhi CapitalsDC | 20 | 17.3 | 18 | +2.0 | 2.8 |
| 02 | Chennai Super KingsCSK | 18 | 16.0 | 16 | +2.0 | 3.5 |
| 03 | Royal Challengers BengaluruRCB | 18 | 15.3 | 16 | +2.0 | 3.8 |
| 04 | Kolkata Knight RidersKKR | 14 | 14.9 | 14 | 0.0 | 4.1 |
| 05 | Mumbai IndiansMI | 14 | 15.1 | 16 | -2.0 | 3.9 |
| 06 | Punjab KingsPBKS | 12 | 13.2 | 14 | -2.0 | 4.9 |
| 07 | Rajasthan RoyalsRR | 10 | 10.3 | 10 | 0.0 | 6.3 |
| 08 | Sunrisers HyderabadSRH | 6 | 9.8 | 10 | -4.0 | 6.6 |
02 Title odds
The trophy field.
Delhi Capitals posted the highest non-winner chance at 30.7%.
03 10,000 seasons
Points, distributed.
Every bar is a count of simulations at that points total. The lime marker is the team’s actual haul.
4 pts actual 18 28 pts
2 pts actual 18 26 pts
2 pts actual 14 28 pts
4 pts actual 14 28 pts
0 pts actual 12 26 pts
0 pts actual 10 24 pts
0 pts actual 6 26 pts
VALIDATED Published table check
passed.
All 8 teams’ played, won, lost, no-result and points fields reconcile to the published final table.
View reference table ↗