190,000 alternate IPL histories
Did the best
team actually win?
Every IPL season from 2008 to 2026, replayed 10,000 times. Skill gets a rating. Luck gets a number.
THE ANSWER Luck leaves fingerprints
2009
was chaos.
Deccan Chargers lifted the trophy in reality, but won only 6.2% of the model’s replays.
Open the season ↗01 Champion luck
The fluke table.
Lower simulated title odds mean a less repeatable championship. This is uncertainty quantified—not a claim that the trophy was undeserved.
012009
Deccan ChargersChampion
6.2%→022023Chennai Super KingsChampion
13.9%→032016Sunrisers HyderabadChampion
14.0%→042010Chennai Super KingsChampion
15.6%→052026Royal Challengers BengaluruChampion
19.7%→062021Chennai Super KingsChampion
19.8%→072018Chennai Super KingsChampion
20.1%→082022Gujarat TitansChampion
21.0%→092025Royal Challengers BengaluruChampion
22.3%→102015Mumbai IndiansChampion
25.2%→112011Chennai Super KingsChampion
25.8%→122014Kolkata Knight RidersChampion
26.5%→132012Kolkata Knight RidersChampion
27.1%→142017Mumbai IndiansChampion
27.9%→152019Mumbai IndiansChampion
28.1%→162024Kolkata Knight RidersChampion
28.4%→172013Mumbai IndiansChampion
29.7%→182008Rajasthan RoyalsChampion
30.7%→192020Mumbai IndiansChampion
38.3%→LIVE What-If Machine
Change one result.
Rewrite a season.
Flip any league match, bend team strength, and run 1,000 new seasons in your browser.
Enter the machine →02 Beyond the trophy
The myths, tested.
The same archive tests momentum, repeatability, venue effects and player impact—not just season outcomes.
of team-seasons show significant clustering—almost exactly the 5% expected by chance.
next-season correlation across 149 returning team pairs. Standout years fade fast.
deliveries feed an independent venue-and-phase-adjusted ball rating.