4 pts actual 20 28 pts
IPL / 2023
2023
Actual championChennai Super Kings
Won the replay13.9%
Luck score86.1%
The champion appeared in roughly one of every 7 simulated title outcomes. Their actual 17 points were +1.3 versus the model expectation.
Hero comparison uses simulated mean points; the table’s Luck column uses the simulated median.01 Expected v actual
Where luck moved the table.
Luck index is actual points minus the simulated median. Positive is above expectation; negative is below.
| Actual | Team | Pts | Expected | Median | Luck | Expected pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Gujarat TitansGT | 20 | 18.4 | 18 | +2.0 | 2.7 |
| 02 | Chennai Super KingsCSK | 17 | 15.7 | 15 | +2.0 | 4.3 |
| 03 | Lucknow Super GiantsLSG | 17 | 16.0 | 15 | +2.0 | 4.2 |
| 04 | Mumbai IndiansMI | 16 | 15.0 | 16 | 0.0 | 4.8 |
| 05 | Rajasthan RoyalsRR | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0.0 | 5.5 |
| 06 | Royal Challengers BengaluruRCB | 14 | 14.6 | 14 | 0.0 | 5.1 |
| 07 | Kolkata Knight RidersKKR | 12 | 13.0 | 12 | 0.0 | 6.2 |
| 08 | Punjab KingsPBKS | 12 | 12.1 | 12 | 0.0 | 6.8 |
| 09 | Delhi CapitalsDC | 10 | 11.5 | 12 | -2.0 | 7.2 |
| 10 | Sunrisers HyderabadSRH | 8 | 9.8 | 10 | -2.0 | 8.2 |
02 Title odds
The trophy field.
Gujarat Titans posted the highest non-winner chance at 37.0%.
03 10,000 seasons
Points, distributed.
Every bar is a count of simulations at that points total. The lime marker is the team’s actual haul.
3 pts actual 17 27 pts
3 pts actual 17 27 pts
0 pts actual 16 28 pts
0 pts actual 14 28 pts
2 pts actual 14 26 pts
0 pts actual 12 28 pts
0 pts actual 12 26 pts
0 pts actual 10 26 pts
0 pts actual 8 24 pts
VALIDATED Published table check
passed.
All 10 teams’ played, won, lost, no-result and points fields reconcile to the published final table.
View reference table ↗