3 pts actual 19 27 pts
IPL / 2011
2011
Actual championChennai Super Kings
Won the replay25.8%
Luck score74.2%
The champion appeared in roughly one of every 4 simulated title outcomes. Their actual 18 points were +0.8 versus the model expectation.
Hero comparison uses simulated mean points; the table’s Luck column uses the simulated median.01 Expected v actual
Where luck moved the table.
Luck index is actual points minus the simulated median. Positive is above expectation; negative is below.
| Actual | Team | Pts | Expected | Median | Luck | Expected pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Royal Challengers BengaluruRCB | 19 | 16.8 | 17 | +2.0 | 3.6 |
| 02 | Chennai Super KingsCSK | 18 | 17.2 | 18 | 0.0 | 3.4 |
| 03 | Mumbai IndiansMI | 18 | 15.8 | 16 | +2.0 | 4.3 |
| 04 | Kolkata Knight RidersKKR | 16 | 15.1 | 16 | 0.0 | 4.8 |
| 05 | Punjab KingsPBKS | 14 | 14.5 | 14 | 0.0 | 5.2 |
| 06 | Rajasthan RoyalsRR | 13 | 12.8 | 13 | 0.0 | 6.3 |
| 07 | Deccan ChargersDEC | 12 | 14.4 | 14 | -2.0 | 5.3 |
| 08 | Kochi Tuskers KeralaKTK | 12 | 12.2 | 12 | 0.0 | 6.8 |
| 09 | Pune WarriorsPWI | 9 | 10.1 | 11 | -2.0 | 8.0 |
| 10 | Delhi CapitalsDC | 9 | 11.1 | 11 | -2.0 | 7.4 |
02 Title odds
The trophy field.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru posted the highest non-winner chance at 24.4%.
03 10,000 seasons
Points, distributed.
Every bar is a count of simulations at that points total. The lime marker is the team’s actual haul.
4 pts actual 18 28 pts
2 pts actual 18 28 pts
2 pts actual 16 28 pts
0 pts actual 14 26 pts
1 pts actual 13 25 pts
2 pts actual 12 28 pts
0 pts actual 12 26 pts
1 pts actual 9 23 pts
1 pts actual 9 25 pts
VALIDATED Published table check
passed.
All 10 teams’ played, won, lost, no-result and points fields reconcile to the published final table.
View reference table ↗