4 pts actual 18 28 pts
IPL / 2026
2026
Actual championRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Won the replay19.7%
Luck score80.3%
The champion appeared in roughly one of every 5 simulated title outcomes. Their actual 18 points were +1.5 versus the model expectation.
Hero comparison uses simulated mean points; the table’s Luck column uses the simulated median.01 Expected v actual
Where luck moved the table.
Luck index is actual points minus the simulated median. Positive is above expectation; negative is below.
| Actual | Team | Pts | Expected | Median | Luck | Expected pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Royal Challengers BengaluruRCB | 18 | 16.5 | 16 | +2.0 | 3.9 |
| 02 | Gujarat TitansGT | 18 | 17.1 | 18 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| 03 | Sunrisers HyderabadSRH | 18 | 17.7 | 18 | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| 04 | Rajasthan RoyalsRR | 16 | 14.2 | 14 | +2.0 | 5.4 |
| 05 | Punjab KingsPBKS | 15 | 13.9 | 13 | +2.0 | 5.6 |
| 06 | Delhi CapitalsDC | 14 | 14.1 | 14 | 0.0 | 5.5 |
| 07 | Kolkata Knight RidersKKR | 13 | 13.4 | 13 | 0.0 | 5.9 |
| 08 | Chennai Super KingsCSK | 12 | 12.1 | 12 | 0.0 | 6.8 |
| 09 | Mumbai IndiansMI | 8 | 10.9 | 10 | -2.0 | 7.5 |
| 10 | Lucknow Super GiantsLSG | 8 | 10.3 | 10 | -2.0 | 7.9 |
02 Title odds
The trophy field.
Sunrisers Hyderabad posted the highest non-winner chance at 29.3%.
03 10,000 seasons
Points, distributed.
Every bar is a count of simulations at that points total. The lime marker is the team’s actual haul.
2 pts actual 18 28 pts
4 pts actual 18 28 pts
2 pts actual 16 28 pts
1 pts actual 15 25 pts
2 pts actual 14 28 pts
1 pts actual 13 25 pts
0 pts actual 12 26 pts
0 pts actual 8 24 pts
0 pts actual 8 24 pts
VALIDATED Published table check
passed.
All 10 teams’ played, won, lost, no-result and points fields reconcile to the published final table.
View reference table ↗