3 pts actual 19 27 pts
IPL / 2025
2025
Actual championRoyal Challengers Bengaluru
Won the replay22.3%
Luck score77.7%
The champion appeared in roughly one of every 4 simulated title outcomes. Their actual 19 points were +2.4 versus the model expectation.
Hero comparison uses simulated mean points; the table’s Luck column uses the simulated median.01 Expected v actual
Where luck moved the table.
Luck index is actual points minus the simulated median. Positive is above expectation; negative is below.
| Actual | Team | Pts | Expected | Median | Luck | Expected pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Punjab KingsPBKS | 19 | 16.8 | 17 | +2.0 | 3.6 |
| 02 | Royal Challengers BengaluruRCB | 19 | 16.6 | 17 | +2.0 | 3.7 |
| 03 | Gujarat TitansGT | 18 | 15.4 | 16 | +2.0 | 4.5 |
| 04 | Mumbai IndiansMI | 16 | 16.3 | 16 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| 05 | Delhi CapitalsDC | 15 | 13.5 | 13 | +2.0 | 5.9 |
| 06 | Sunrisers HyderabadSRH | 13 | 14.5 | 15 | -2.0 | 5.2 |
| 07 | Lucknow Super GiantsLSG | 12 | 12.2 | 12 | 0.0 | 6.6 |
| 08 | Kolkata Knight RidersKKR | 12 | 13.1 | 14 | -2.0 | 6.5 |
| 09 | Rajasthan RoyalsRR | 8 | 11.1 | 10 | -2.0 | 7.4 |
| 10 | Chennai Super KingsCSK | 8 | 10.7 | 10 | -2.0 | 7.6 |
02 Title odds
The trophy field.
Punjab Kings posted the highest non-winner chance at 22.1%.
03 10,000 seasons
Points, distributed.
Every bar is a count of simulations at that points total. The lime marker is the team’s actual haul.
3 pts actual 19 27 pts
2 pts actual 18 28 pts
2 pts actual 16 28 pts
3 pts actual 15 25 pts
3 pts actual 13 27 pts
0 pts actual 12 26 pts
2 pts actual 12 26 pts
0 pts actual 8 26 pts
0 pts actual 8 24 pts
VALIDATED Published table check
passed.
All 10 teams’ played, won, lost, no-result and points fields reconcile to the published final table.
View reference table ↗