4 pts actual 20 28 pts
IPL / 2009
2009
Actual championDeccan Chargers
Won the replay6.2%
Luck score93.8%
The champion appeared in roughly one of every 16 simulated title outcomes. Their actual 14 points were +1.3 versus the model expectation.
Hero comparison uses simulated mean points; the table’s Luck column uses the simulated median.01 Expected v actual
Where luck moved the table.
Luck index is actual points minus the simulated median. Positive is above expectation; negative is below.
| Actual | Team | Pts | Expected | Median | Luck | Expected pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Delhi CapitalsDC | 20 | 17.2 | 18 | +2.0 | 2.8 |
| 02 | Chennai Super KingsCSK | 17 | 16.9 | 17 | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| 03 | Royal Challengers BengaluruRCB | 16 | 15.0 | 16 | 0.0 | 3.9 |
| 04 | Deccan ChargersDEC | 14 | 12.7 | 12 | +2.0 | 5.2 |
| 05 | Punjab KingsPBKS | 14 | 13.7 | 14 | 0.0 | 4.7 |
| 06 | Rajasthan RoyalsRR | 13 | 13.4 | 13 | 0.0 | 4.8 |
| 07 | Mumbai IndiansMI | 11 | 12.6 | 13 | -2.0 | 5.3 |
| 08 | Kolkata Knight RidersKKR | 7 | 10.5 | 11 | -4.0 | 6.3 |
02 Title odds
The trophy field.
Chennai Super Kings posted the highest non-winner chance at 27.6%.
03 10,000 seasons
Points, distributed.
Every bar is a count of simulations at that points total. The lime marker is the team’s actual haul.
5 pts actual 17 27 pts
0 pts actual 16 28 pts
0 pts actual 14 26 pts
0 pts actual 14 26 pts
1 pts actual 13 25 pts
1 pts actual 11 27 pts
1 pts actual 7 23 pts
VALIDATED Published table check
passed.
All 8 teams’ played, won, lost, no-result and points fields reconcile to the published final table.
View reference table ↗